Prediction and minimax estimation of the production system in the presence of risks

The solution of the problem forecasting state complex socio-economic systems is possible only on basis appropriate dynamic economic and mathematical models that describe their main parameters, presence control actions risks. In this paper, it proposed to use a deterministic minimax approach for modeling solving estimating predicted states production system in To make managerial decisions at manufacturing enterprise aimed improving efficiency its functioning, necessary have high-quality information support, which corresponding predicting basic parameters. article, functioning system, discrete-time controlled dynamical It assumed values action (admissible scenarios) are realized from finite set admissible elements finite-dimensional vector space, realizations phase model risk limited by given compact polyhedrons spaces. Application developed describes output products an risks, methodology formation estimation predictive period time, allow us develop numerical algorithms can be used development creation computer intelligent provide support making effective management enterprises. results work new economic-mathematical dynamics risks constructing form implementing number one-step operations algorithmization. obtained serve as developing methods optimizing processes creating decision-making.